Forecasters Warn Western Oklahoma Could Face Early, Widespread Wildfire Threat in 2026

News | January 5, 2026, 11:07 AM by Paragon Staff

Western Oklahoma – Western Oklahoma could be facing another dangerous wildfire season as early as January, with forecasters warning conditions may be worse and more widespread than last year.

Predictors with the National Interagency Fire Center say Western Oklahoma will see an elevated wildfire threat to start 2026, with that risk expanding statewide by March. February is expected to bring a much larger footprint of above normal fire potential across the western half of the state.

Elk City Fire Chief Kyle Chervenka says current conditions already show how quickly fires can get out of hand in the region’s deep grass.

“Yeah, the fuels are dry, you know, we don’t, I don’t see any measurable rainfall in the forecast coming up and in this deep grass, it’s just dry,” Chervenka said. “Once it starts going, it just pulls its own inflow and really gets to pushing, and it’s really challenging to get it knocked down right now. It takes several trucks in the line to get that fire knocked out.”

The warning follows a devastating wildfire season in March 2025, which ranked among the worst in Oklahoma history. Fire officials say the underlying factors that drove those fires have not improved.

According to federal forecasters, drought conditions are a major concern. Significant to extreme drought is already present across Southern Oklahoma, and the agency notes drought intensified across the Southern Plains toward the end of 2025. Over the coming months, drought is expected to expand and worsen across parts of Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, increasing the likelihood of large, fast-moving fires.

In 2024, similar forecasts proved accurate. That year, Oklahoma recorded more than 130 wildfires across 44 counties, burning over 170,000 acres and destroying at least 530 homes and businesses statewide.

The current outlook stretches beyond Oklahoma. Forecasters say all of Kansas, and much of Texas.

Fire officials across Western Oklahoma are urging residents to remain cautious, limit outdoor burning, and stay alert as dry fuels and worsening drought set the stage for another potentially dangerous fire season.